Even though accounts are positive year-to-date after a swift recovery from the Q4 2018 volatility, most people do not realize that the S&P 500 has been essentially flat since the market peaked back on January 26, 2018 (S&P 500: 2,872) over 18 months ago. The S&P 500 closed August 12th at 2,883, only +0.38% above the January 26th market peak. Once again, there has been a lot of market volatility with not much to show for it.
Here is an update on what the markets have done since January 26, 2018:
As you can see, the returns have been all over. Overall, not very impressive with many markets still negative over this period. Gold has been the best asset to own over this time frame (if you can believe that). This is precisely why we like to own a diversified portfolio because we know not all assets move in the same direction, at the same time. We know we are long-term investors, but we wanted to address the feeling some of you might have – “I feel like our accounts haven’t gained much over the past few years.” That feeling is justified based off the index performance listed out above.
With Trump running for re-election in 2020, market volatility is not going away. We expect it to pick up as we get closer to the election and we see who wins the Democratic nomination. Regarding who faces Trump on the ballot, this could send shock waves to the market depending on their policy proposals, etc. This is not just a “Trump” thing, market volatility has been around since the beginning and is normal and healthy. As long as we have a good understanding of our clients spending needs, we feel like we have prepared for the volatility when (not if) it rears its ugly head. Even though it is sometimes hard to be patient, we believe it is the best thing to do especially when we “planned” for it.
Jerrod Ferguson & Vance Wealth Investment Committee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. You cannot invest directly in an index.
The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.
Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to change to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated. Credit Risk is the possibility that a bond issuer will fail to repay interest and principal in a timely manner. Also called default risk. Expressions of opinions are as of this date and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein ill prove to be correct. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. This is not replacement for the official customer account statements or trade confirmations from Raymond James or other custodians. Investors are reminded to compare the findings in this report to their official customer account statements. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.